energy corridors

Introduzione
The objective of the report is the optimization of the primary energy supply chain to the region Hungary, through its energy corridors. The resources considered for the analysis are fossil fuels, in particular:
coal,
crude oil,
natural gas.
Using suitable databases, for each commodity it has been constructed the path from the country of extraction to Hungary. The analysis of each corridor represented as a RES (Reference Energy System) returned an Output cost of the commodity, which takes into account the extraction, the transport and the existing infrastructures. Finally, using the Excel Solver, it has been found the optimal configuration of the system, for different objective and different scenarios.
Definition of corridors
Hungary imports commodities by train, ships and pipelines; energy corridors are hence formed by the different transport systems. Coal is transported via train and ship, while gas and oil are transported via pipelines.
The following table shows all the energy corridors that supplied Hungary in 2005, reference year for all the further calculations. The most significant characteristics has been specified in the table:
Country of origin, where the resource is extracted;
Corridor code, as defined in the EU database;
Commodity transported;
Activity [PJ/y], is the total energy transported in 2005 in each corridor;
Total length [km], is the sum of all kilometers covered, per transport mean;
Risk index [%], it associates a value of risk to a country (of origin or a region crossed by the transport system), and it’s assessed as a single average of the socio political, intrinsic energy, political institutional and economy driven risks. The value goes from 0 to 100: the lower the index, the safer the supply.
Often the risk associated to the big trans European pipelines is connected to the risk of the most “dangerous” country crossed by the pipes; that means that a single “weakest link” could damage the entire supply chain, even if characterized by low risk countries. The impossibility of substitute some main corridors entails sometimes an acceptability of the risk itself.
It can be easily noticed that corridors length are very different, as well as quantities extracted, so it would be expected a huge variations of transport cost.



Country of origin Region Corridor Commodity Activity Total length [km] Risk index  
[PJ/y] Train Ship Pipeline [%]  
South Africa Hungary HC_SUP_01_13_D Coal 21,9 1400 16300 41,1  
Colombia Hungary HC_SUP_03_13_D Coal 44,9 1100 11230 44,9  
USA Hungary HC_SUP_04_13_D Coal 30,4 2800 10150 25,0  
Azerbaijan Hungary NG_SUP_044_08_A_AZJ Natural gas 200,0 3464 48,9  
Egypt Hungary NG_SUP_044_08_A_EGY Natural gas 100,0 3576 52,0  
Iran Hungary NG_SUP_044_08_A_IRN1 Natural gas 80,0 5121 55,4  
Iraq Hungary NG_SUP_044_08_A_IRQ Natural gas 100,0 3248 72,9  
Kazakhstan Hungary NG_SUP_053_01_B_KAZ Natural gas 100,0 2393 43,3  
Russia Hungary NG_SUP_053_01_B_RUS1 Natural gas 56,4 3773 39,0  
Russia Hungary NG_SUP_053_01_B_RUS3 Natural gas 18,5 3803 39,0  
Russia Hungary NG_SUP_053_01_B_RUS4 Natural gas 252,5 2589 39,0  
Kazakhstan Hungary OIL_SUP_017_07_C2B_KAZ5 Crude oil 150,0 4288 43,3  
Russia Hungary OIL_SUP_017_07_C2B_RUS1 Crude oil 120,0 4333 39,0
Table 1. Hungary energy corridors (2005)
Transport typologies
Ships
Hungary doesn’t overlook the sea, so it doesn’t have a port. However the nearest port is in Constanta (Romania), which is about 800 km from Hungary borders and has a very developed maritime transport system. Ships arrive at Constanta Port to the Black sea and the Mediterranean sea, which is connected to Atlantic ocean through Gibraltar strait and to Red sea and Indian ocean through Suez Canal.
To assess the cost of open sea routes we’ve hypothesized the characteristics of the ships, with a medium carrying capacity without considering the model of the ship. The table below shows the data used for reference.

Table 2. Data for open sea routes cost assessment
The total output cost could be estimated through the following procedure:
Each full trip performed by a defined tanker requires the time A [d/trip] = 2 x L/ vel + l-unl + ch-p
A [d/trip] = (2 * length [km/trip]/ tanker velocity [km/d]) + load/unload days per trip [d/trip] + choke points delay days per trip [d/trip]
Available time in a full year for travelling: B [d/y] = 365 – MT [d/y] (yearly maintenance time)
Number of trips that the tanker can perform in a year: C = B / A [trip/y]
Commodity supplied by a tanker each year: D [Mt/y/tanker] = C [trip/y] x dwt [Mt/trip/tanker]
Number of tankers needed for the activity ACT [Mt/y]: N [tanker] = ACT / D
Capacity of the corridor: CAP [Mt/y] = N[tanker] x D [Mt/y/tanker]
Capital Cost CC [M€] of the corridor CC = N [tanker] x TC [M€/tanker] (tanker cost)
INVCOST [M€/(Mt/y)]: CC [M€] / CAP [Mt/y]
FIXOM [(M€/y)/(Mt/y)] can be evaluated assuming standard personnel cost plus insurance cost plus planned maintenance cost (generally, all figures are related to the dwt).
The full length travelled by all the tankers in a year is: Ltot [km/y] = N x 2 x L
It can be used for fuel consumption and emission evaluations, (alternatively, it is possible to refer to the full working time (on sea + at port)).
Then the Total output cost will be:

Where CRF (Capital Recovery Factor) is:

DR = Discount Rate
Capacity and Activity are in [Mt/y] for the considered corridor, Input cost is the cost of the fuel plus the extraction cost, INVCOST is the Investment cost for the ships fleet [M€/(Mt/y)], FIXOM is the fixed annual cost [M€/y] and VAROM is the variable cost for ship [M€/y].
Particular attention must be paid to the ch-p time, that is the delay due to the choke points on the route. The choke points can be individuated through the REACCESS map, shown below.